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DTN Midday Grain Comments     06/29 11:09

   Grain Futures in the Green Midday Tuesday

   Corn trade is 3 cents lower to 8 cents higher; beans are 10 to 17 cents 
higher and wheat is flat to 8 cents lower.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   Corn trade is 3 cents lower to 8 cents higher; beans are 10 to 17 cents 
higher and wheat is flat to 8 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is mixed with 
the Dow up 30 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 0.40 higher. Interest rate 
products are higher. Energies are mixed with crude up $0.80. Livestock trade is 
mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold down $3.00.


   Corn trade is 3 cents lower to 8 cents higher with July leading as it heads 
into delivery at Wednesday's close, with further position squaring likely ahead 
of Thursday's Stocks and Acres reports. Trade will continue to watch the 
forecast with more focus on corn pollination temperatures as we push into July 
with the back of the forecast looking warmer for some, with uncertain moisture 
placement but immediate concerns limited. On the report, trade is looking for 
4.343 billion bushels in stocks versus 4.111 billion last year, and a range of 
4.035 bb to 4.474 bb with acres at 89.86 million on a range of 88.4 ma to 91.0 
ma, and the March number at 89.48 million. The export wire will need to show 
value buyers picking up bushels on the break with nothing on the daily report 
yet. The ethanol margins are likely to remain rangebound with strong blender 
margins remaining in place with unleaded moderating in recent days and the 
weekly report showing production at 1.055 million barrels Wednesday, mostly 
steady and stocks up 279,000, keeping us in the middle of the recent range. 
Basis remains solid through most of the Corn Belt, with most place moving their 
bids to the September contract. On the September chart, support is the fresh 
low at $6.54 with lower Bollinger Band just above that at $6.58, with the 
20-day well above the market at $7.08. 


   Soybean trade is 10 to 17 cents higher at midday with early weakness turning 
back to strength as meal led the product complex back with little other fresh 
pre-report news. Meal is $5.00 to $6.00 higher with oil 0.45 cent to 0.55 cent 
higher. On the report, trade is looking for stocks at 965 million bushels, on a 
range of 740 million to 1.1 billion, with acres at 90.44 million on a range of 
88.7 to 92.35 million and March at 90.955. Biodiesel margins are very good at 
the moment, which should bolster crush recovery into fall with fresh capacity 
expected to come online then. South America is moving towards post-harvest 
footing at this point with planting wrapped up for full season in the U.S. and 
getting started on double crop, with wheat harvest moving quickly with moisture 
needed to boost development. Basis is fading a bit at processors and exporters 
in recent days with the daily wire remaining quiet. On the August soybean chart 
support is the lower Bollinger Band at $15.09 with the 20-day well above the 
market at $16.08.


   Wheat trade is flat to 8 cents lower with trade struggling to hold overnight 
gains again as harvest pressure fades for winter wheat, and spring wheat sees a 
less threatening short-term forecast. Weather in the Plains should allow for 
harvest to continue moving with few areas slowed by rains. The dollar continues 
to hold in the upper end of the range with the strong ruble helping 
competitiveness as well with Russia expected to have near record supplies with 
other Black Sea supply diminishes with Middle East tenders shrinking as buyers 
seek ways to stretch supplies with Egypt working to buy Wednesday. On the 
report, stocks are expected to be at 655 million bushels on a range of 635 to 
675 million. The KC September chart has support at the fresh low at $9.77 
scored Monday with the lower Bollinger Band at $9.62 and the 20-day still well 
above the market at $11.02.

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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