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DTN Midday Grain Comments     04/12 10:53

   Corn, Beans Higher and Wheat Mixed at Midday Friday

   Corn trade is 3-4 cents higher; beans are 6-7 cents higher and wheat trade 
is narrowly mixed.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   The U.S. stock market is mixed at midday Friday with the S&P 50 points 
lower. The dollar index is up 75 points. The interest rate products are firmer. 
Energies are firmer with crude up $2 and natural gas up 2 cents. Livestock 
trade is sharply lower. Precious metals are sharply higher with gold up $48.50.


   Corn is 3-4 cents higher with firmer spread action at midday with trade 
bouncing back to resistance levels nearby before fading again into midday as 
the broad commodity buying early fades a bit. On the report yesterday, trade 
saw a carryout at 2.122 billion bushels off 50 million from last month and just 
above expectations while world and South American estimates were virtually 
unchanged. Conab lowered Brazil's production estimates to just below 111 
million metric tons (mmt) which is solidly below USDA numbers. Ethanol margins 
remain sideways with better nearby driving demand needed to boost margins for 
producers as unleaded strength boosts blenders.

   The daily wire was quiet to end the week. Basis should remain steady to firm 
short term as field work picks up. Near-term weather looks to warm up enough to 
push fieldwork in the drier spots with rains to slow action in the southern and 
eastern growing areas. The second crop in Brazil should continue to develop 
with limited short-term concerns. On the May chart, the 20-day at $4.34 is 
nearby resistance with our support of the lower Bollinger Band at $4.25.


   Soybean trade is 6-7 cents higher with light product gains with trade 
bouncing off the lower end of the range, but early aggressive short covering 
fading after trade was near 20 cents higher early in the day session. Meal is 
$1.50 to $2.50 higher and oil is flat to 10 points higher. On the report, we 
saw carryout at 340 million bushels, up 25 million from last month, with South 
American and world estimates unchanged. Conab reduced Brazilian estimates to 
146.5 mmt which is well below USDA numbers as well. South America continues to 
see few issues short term as harvest rolls on in Brazil and the growing season 
winds down in Argentina.

   The daily wire saw another 124,000 metric tons (mt) of old-crop sold to 
unknown. Planting in the U.S. should start to advance with warmer temps in some 
areas but overall progress will remain limited until midmonth. May soybean 
futures have support at the $11.57 lower Bollinger Band which we are bounced 
from overnight. Chart resistance is at the 20-day moving average of $11.86.     


   Wheat trade is narrowly mixed with dollar strength helping to limit upside 
after the early broad ag strength. The Plains will see seasonal temperatures 
short term with a bit drier short-term look for the hard red winter areas with 
better moisture in the extended forecast with mixed Euro and Black Sea weather 
continuing. The dollar is sharply higher again, extending the range higher with 
Matif wheat edging higher after testing support.

   On the report, trade saw carryout at 697 million bushels up from 670 last 
month with world stocks virtually unchanged. On the KC May chart, support is 
the 20-day at $5.80 that we popped back through Wednesday, with the upper 
Bollinger band at $5.95 as resistance.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com. 

   Follow him on X, formerly Twitter, @davidfiala.

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